The Sun-Herald

The Tribal Mind: The politics of television, and vice versa

To explain why Australians don't report serious crimes, go to Who We Are.

by David Dale
IT WORKED before, so lets see if it can work again. This is the analogy: Channel Seven is the Labor Party, and Channel Nine is the Liberal/National coalition. Follow the fortunes of Nine and Seven in the ratings, and you will anticipate the fortunes of Opposition and Government in the opinion polls. That was the tool with which this column predicted the result of the 2007 election. Will it work for the 2010 election?

Three years ago, we discussed how television tastes offer clues about the changing national mood, noting that after September 11 and the Bali bombings, Australians retreated into their cocoons. "The favourites of the early Noughties were all about lifestyle -- home renovations, gardening, domestic bliss. The dramas were about crimes solved and stability restored in a single episode ... Viewers avoided programs that required them to come back next week, because life was too crazy to allow such a commitment.

"But since 2005, our favourite shows have been serials, keeping us in constant suspense about who will be voted off the dance floor, who will be murdered on Wisteria Lane, what will the island do to the survivors, how will Dr House outsmart the cop who wants to jail him, etc. Instead of being reassured by our mass entertainment, we demand to be surprised.

"What follows from this transformation in public mood? That Australians will be inclined to vote for Kevin Rudd at the federal election. Where once they craved security, now they relish change ... Australia's current preference for Channel Seven, which offers novelty, over Channel Nine, which offers 'we know what's best for you', suggests that the nation is in sit-forward mode. If an election were held now, we'd vote for surprise and risk rather than predictability and comfort."

Three years later, lets look at the state of the stations. Nine is resurgent, Seven is sinking. In the morning, Today regularly beats Sunrise in Sydney and Melbourne. In the afternoon, The Hot Seat is neck and neck with Deal or no Deal. Nine has hits with Top Gear, The Mentalist and Two and a Half Men, soon to be followed by Underbelly: The Golden Mile (legal action permitting).

Seven's big dramas, Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives, have jumped the shark. Its only new hit, My Kitchen Rules, is a rehash of MasterChef, which does not suggest much imagination in the programming department. Seven's celebrity game show, The White Room, got axed after two weeks because it was hastily conceived and badly managed (just like a certain home insulation program we've heard about recently).

Over the past two weeks, the prime time audience shares have been: Seven 25.6 per cent, Nine 26.7 per cent. At the same time, the opinion polls have shown a slump for the Government and a rise for the Opposition. Kevin Rudd now finds himself where John Howard was in March of 2007 - representing stodgy stability, while Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce represent edgy unpredictability.

To restore his reputation for innovation, Rudd has just unveiled visionary schemes in education and health. If our analogy is correct, Channel Seven will need to unveil some big new programming plans very soon.

The last paragraph of this column on May 28, 2007 said this: "You can expect the prime minister to hold off the election date till as late as possible this year. He'll be watching the ratings, tracking the rise of Nine and the decline of Seven, waiting for clear evidence that we have settled back onto the sofa of life. Then he'll pounce."

Go to Comments to discuss whether this year will be different.

David Dale is the author of The Little Book of Australia -- A snapshot of who we are (Allen and Unwin). For daily updates on Australian attitudes, bookmark blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare.