The Sun-Herald

The Tribal Mind: Never bet on politics, television or the movies

For the winners of the Australia Day limerick contest, go to Who We Are.

by David Dale
THIS column is not a gambling man, but somehow in the last few weeks it has become entangled in three foolish wagers. In chronological order of likely embarrassment later this year, I seem to have placed bets that:

1) Avatar will never pass $100 million in Australian ticket sales and will thus leave The Sound of Music with the title of Australia's favourite movie;
2) Kristina Keneally will be Premier after the next State election;
3) No television series this year will top the mainland capitals audience of 2.4 million who watched the men's final of the tennis last Sunday.

This column is supposed to have some insight into the mass behaviour of Australians, so you'd think I'd know better than to take such risks. We can blame Cardinal George Pell, the Catholic Archbishop of Sydney, for bet number one. In January, he condemned Avatar as "old-fashioned pagan propaganda". To reassure him, I pointed out that although it had earned more money than any other film in history, Avatar would need to make $100 million to sell as many tickets as The Sound of Music, which some might describe as old-fashioned Catholic propaganda. And ticket sales of that kind would never happen. (To read that discussion, go to Baal worship.)

Mary Sum, an oracle who writes box office analysis for a website called urbancinefile.com.au, challenged us to put a bottle of great red wine on this prediction. As of last Thursday, Avatar's takings totalled $94 million. Please don't go again this weekend.

Bet number two is with a journalist from a rival news organisation, who sneered at my contention that voters will be influenced by a detail the pundits have so far ignored: Kristina Keneally is hot, and Barry O'Farrell is not. I offered to buy lunch if Keneally lost. While not denying Keneally's sex appeal, my opponent said he was so confident of her inability to transcend the rottenness of NSW Labor, he would put up his house.

Bet number three is with a fan of MasterChef, who was complaining about Channel Seven's new show My Kitchen Rules, rapidly nicknamed Dining With Bogans, because its contestants are so tedious. I suggested MKR would devalue the currency of foodie talent quests, and cut the audience that Ten can expect for this year's MasterChef. The fan said MasterChef's producers would be smart enough to choose interesting characters and to create a suspenseful story arc, letting it repeat the performance of attracting 3.7 million viewers to the finale.

If any episode of MasterChef or any other series draws more than 2.4 million viewers this year, I have to buy a dinner at Sydney's best restaurant. My confidence is boosted by the audience numbers in this chart:

The most watched shows of last week
1 Australian Open final (7) 2.4 million
2 Two and a Half Men (9) 1.5 million;
3 The Mentalist (9) 1.3m;
4 The Big Bang Theory (9) 1.2m;
5 Customs (9) 1.2m;
6 RSPCA Animal Rescue (7) 1.2m;
7 Grey's Anatomy (7) 1.2m;
8 My Kitchen Rules (7) 1.2m;
9 The Biggest Loser launch (10) 1.2m;
10 So You Think You Can Dance Australia launch (10) 1.2m.
(OzTAM preliminary estimates, mainland capitals)

Programs that once averaged 1.8 million viewers and passed 2.2 million for special events are stuck on 1.2 million. This is not because Australians are watching less television. It's because there is now too much choice, provided by Foxtel and by the big networks' digital spinoffs. Very few shows have the capacity to unite the nation any more. Tennis still does it. MasterChef did it last year.

I'm anticipating that after the State election next year, I'll be setting off from my brand new house with my great bottle of red and heading for a fine meal at [product placement here]. But probably I'll have to pay for all three.

Go to Comments to discuss the merits of these bets.

David Dale is the author of The Little Book of Australia -- A snapshot of who we are (Allen and Unwin). For daily updates on Australian attitudes, bookmark blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare.