The Sun-Herald

The Tribal Mind: Safe inside, not even looking out

To nuance the Buzz Word of the Year, go to Who We Are.

by David Dale
The pundits are propounding a theory that Australians have started cocooning again -- retreating into their castles and pulling up the drawbridge.

The last time we went into cocoon mode was between 2002 and 2004, in reaction to the terrorist attacks in New York and Bali. The key signs were a rise in cinema attendance (as we escaped into fantasies), a rise in DVD sales (ditto), and a preference for TV shows that were safe, cheerful and reassuring - such as Backyard Blitz, Better Homes and Gardens, Our House, and CSI (which demonstrated that all crimes could be neatly resolved in an hour).

That kind of retreat is supposed to be happening this year, in response to the Global Financial Crisis, but I'm not convinced. For a brief moment, most Australians are actually better off now than they were a year ago, thanks to handouts from the federal government and lower mortgage repayments. Why would we retreat yet? Lets examine the evidence.

If we were escaping into fantasy, cinema takings would be up. In America, birthplace of the GFC, total box office for the first 10 weeks of the year was 16 percent higher than for the same period last year. But here, the box office seems to be plummeting. Ticket sales have been down, on average, 10 per cent every week since the beginning of February, with brief upturns when He's Just Not That Into You opened and when Watchmen opened.

But of course, the cinematic slump could fit with the cocooning theory. Perhaps we've decided do all our escapism within the fortress.

If we were cocooning, we'd be buying DVDs. The research organisation GfK Australia tells me DVD sales during February were down 4 per cent on the previous February. But there may be significance in the kind of entertainment Australians are choosing. These were the top sellers last month: How I Met Your Mother series 3; Wall-E; The Dark Knight; The Hills season 3; Underbelly series 1; Two and a Half Men season 4; Burn After Reading; Mamma Mia!; Veronica Mars season 3; House Bunny. Half of the top sellers are boxed sets containing many hours of programming already shown on television. It certainly looks as if Australia is stocking up for a long night in.

If we were cocooning, we'd be watching more television. A dissection of OzTAM ratings shows that the average number of people in the mainland capitals watching TV in prime time this February was down 3 per cent on February last year for the free networks and up 7 per cent for Pay TV, which adds up to no extra viewers overall. But those who do watch seem to be doing it more. The average time urban Australians spend watching TV between 6am and midnight is 28 hours a week, which is up 2 per cent on last year. A small trend, if not exactly staggering.

Perhaps there's more to learn from the kind of TV we're consuming. Two of the favourites of our last cocooning period -- Better Homes and Gardens and CSI are still on the air, but are both down in audience. The most "lifestylist" of the current crop, Domestic Blitz, has 400,000 fewer fans than last year.

The most watched show of the moment is Underbelly: A Tale of Two Cities, which is far from a warm bath. Next come Packed to the Rafters and Find My Family, which emphasise traditional values and the power of love. But they were also our favourites last year, when we needed no reassurance.

Conclusion: There is no clear evidence that Australia has started panicking yet. This column will run the same tests every three months until the GFC is over, and get back to you. In the meantime, give us your theories at Comments

David Dale is the author of Who We Are -- A snapshot of Australia today (Allen and Unwin). For daily updates on Australian attitudes, bookmark http://blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare.