The Sun-Herald

The Tribal Mind: We've found the hero we need

To learn how Big Brother made Australia smarter, go to Who We Are

by David Dale
The revelation that The Dark Knight sold $2.3 million worth of tickets on its first day in Australian cinemas (more than most movies sell in a week) reminds me of this column's promise to do a reality check on a foolish prediction made here last month. When Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull earned $12.3 million in its first week, I said it would end up selling far fewer tickets than its predecessor, Raiders of the Lost Ark, despite the conventional wisdom that blockbusters always total about three times their first week's takings.

My reasoning: IJ4 does not satisfy the requirements of the archetypal Hero's Journey (explained here); has a dud McGuffin (the alien football is no match for the Ark of the Covenant or The Holy Grail -- explained here); has a cliche climax (UFOs again!); and fails to give its villain a satisfying sendoff (Our Cate's demise is a pale imitation of the Nazi head melt in IJ1, despite leaps in special effects since 1981).

To be as successful as the original, IJ4 needed to earn $33 million. In fact, it will leave Australian cinemas with $29.5 million. That suggests that it did not generate enthusiastic word-of-mouth. If it had the emotional resonance of IJ1 and IJ3, it would have picked up repeat business during the school holidays, but its core audience (teenage boys of all ages) were easily distracted by such other heroes as John Hancock, Maxwell Smart, Prince Caspian, Zohan Dvir, Po Panda and, most recently, Bruce Wayne.

Here's the box office chart for the year up to last Thursday: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $29m; Sex and The City $26m; I Am Legend $23m; Kung Fu Panda $23m (in three weeks); Iron Man $20m; Alvin and the Chipmunks $18m; 27 Dresses $16m; Hancock $16m (in two weeks); Narnia: Prince Caspian $14m; Get Smart $14m (in three weeks); Dr Suess Horton Hears a Who $12m; American Gangster $12m; Juno $12m; You Don't Mess With The Zohan $11m; Mamma Mia $8m (in one week).

The Dark Knight has all the qualities IJ4 lacked: depth, complexity, imagination, characterisation, and a literate script. The special effects will draw the teens, and grownups will be curious about Heath Ledger's performance and intrigued by the examination of moral responsibility in civilised societies.

TDK will certainly gross more than the $16 million made by its predecessor, Batman Begins, in 2005. But will it sell more tickets than Batman, the 1989 movie in which Michael Keaton was the dark knight and Jack Nicholson was The Joker? That made $13.8m, which would be $23m at today's ticket prices.

Having had a rare success with the prediction about IJ4, this column should quit while its ahead, but I'm going to go again: TDK won't be the biggest moneymaker of this year (that will be Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince) or even the second biggest (IJ4) or the third biggest (Sex and the city or Kung Fu Panda).

It deserves to beat those blockbusters, but it won't, because it's too thoughtful. I'd like to be proved wrong, because that will mean moviegoers prefer a movie that respects their intelligence. Lets revisit this topic in eight weeks, and meantime, you can offer your predictions by going to Comments

David Dale is the author of Who We Are -- A snapshot of Australia today (Allen and Unwin). To discuss Australian attitudes, go to http://blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare.