Test your telepathy

Wednesday May 9, 2007 04:08 PM

Who We Are

by David Dale
We have a winner in the contest to predict how well The Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, and Fun With Dick and Jane would do at the Australian box office..
This is what this column asked, back on December 20:

How well can you read the mood of Australians? Here's a special Tribal Mind holiday contest. We want you to predict the final box office takings for four movies currently cramming the multiplexes -- The Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, and Fun With Dick and Jane -- given only this background information:

Australians went to the flicks less often in 2005 than in 2004; and on average, blockbusters have tended to total, by the end of their runs, three times what they made in their first week.
At the beginning of 2005, The Incredibles made $7.6 million in its first week, and ended up with $26.7 million, so it conformed with the "three times" rule. But Meet The Fockers broke the rule by opening with $8.8m and ending with $34.9 million -- because it got fabulous word of mouth. And Matrix Revolutions opened with $9.7 million and totalled $18.1m -- because it was a load of crap. So think carefully about possible contributing factors before making your predictions on how Australia will respond to these four movies. This is what you need to know:

In its first week, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire sold $15.75 million worth of tickets. Can the fourth Potter beat the first Potter ($42m) or even the third Potter ($33m)?

King Kong made $8.59m in its first week. Can it approach Peter Jackson's last epic -- Return of the King at $46m?

The Chronicles of Narnia made $8.79m in its first week. Will it follow the averages and end up with $26.4m, or is it better than that?

And for the purposes of comparison, we include the new Jim Carrey comedy Fun With Dick and Jane, which made $2.28m in its first week.

Your task: tell us what those films will total by the first week of February, 2006, and explain your reasoning. Your four predictions must be registered (via the comments below) before midnight on Monday January 2, 2006.

In February, the readers who came closest to all four totals, or who offered the most plausible analysis of the nation's moviegoing habits, will win a modest prize: the popular culture guidebook WHO WE ARE -- A miscellany of the New Australia, by David Dale.

Here are the ticket sales as of January 30:

Narnia has totalled $33.8m after five weeks.
Dick and Jane has totalled $11.5m after six weeks.
King Kong has totalled $21.4m after eight weeks.
Harry Potter has totalled $35.5m after nine weeks.

Now here's the winner announcement: Nobody got the figures exactly correct. Most people underestimated Narnia and overestimated Kong. The reader who came closest was Craig McGowen, who wins a copy of Who We Are for speculating that Harry would make $34.5m, Narnia $31m, Kong $22m and Jane $11m.

David Dale is the author of Who We Are -- A snapshot of Australia today (Allen and Unwin). His latest book is Soffritto -- A delicious Ligurian memoir. To join a daily discussion of Australian attitudes, go to http://blogs.sunherald.com.au/whoweare.

COMMENTS

Harry Potter - 35 million

King Kong - 25 million

The Chronicles of Narnia - 32 million

Fun with Dick and Jane - 20 million (here's hoping word of mouth will do it a favour, because it is FUNNY!!!)

by Rebecca Kiejda on December 30, 2005 at 10:26 PM

Harry Potter - $34 million
Because I suspect just about every kid that was going to see Harry Potter would have seen it on the first weekend, then there is not much left of an audience to live up to the x3 rule. And besides, I can't see it pulling more than any of the Star Wars Prequels ($34 - $39m) which I think have a similar but deeper appeal to kids and adults alike.

King Kong - $30 million
I think this one film (or should I say director) that I think will break the x3 rule. I don't think people were rushing out to see this on the opening weekend, but I think when there is nothing left to watch this summer, I think people will all give Peter Jackson a chance. I expect this film to run longer than your standard film before being taking out of cinemas, but I definately don't expect people to see it twice in a hurry - it's too slow and long to appreciate again for a few years.

Narnia - $28 million
Having just seen this tonight, I expect it will live up to the x3 rule, if not a little more. Again, it is one of the higher quality films this summer, although I think we are all getting tired of fantasy and kids films, so may not do as well as it could have.

Dick and Jane - $12 million
Despite a few ads, I don't think anyone really knows what this film is about apart from more of Jim Carry. I therefore think the first week takings are not a true indication of the length this film will run for. Given all the other fantasy on at the moment, I expect this one will be a fresh alternative for adults and so will break the x3 rule, but still overall will not be a "blockbuster" in the same league as the above films. Give Liar Liar at $21m and Dumb and Dumber at $16.9m, I'm going to say this one won't break that, but will be in the ballpark at $12m.

by Adam Thomas on December 31, 2005 at 12:34 AM

The best movie of all releases was Fun with dick and jane ,As this movie had some thing which other movies lack'd in today's high tech movie world.
Jim have again showed why he is a highly paid actor in holywood.
Rest all the releases for this year where crap, don't know what these directors and producers were thinking while making these maga flops, may be they have lot of money to spend.cheers Zuess....

by zuess on December 31, 2005 at 01:06 AM

Harry Potter- 36.5 million

King Kong- 21 million

The Chronicles of Narnia- 30 million

Fun with Dick and Jane - 7 million

Total- 94.7 million.

by San Nam on December 31, 2005 at 02:23 AM

HP4 - 34 Mllion (almost at the end of its season and largely overtaken by the big newer releases but should match the takings of HP3 and maybe make a litte more based on the greater popularity of the 4th book)

KK - 19 Million (word of mouth is more good than bad but too many people are turned off by the 3 hour length)

Narnia - 28 Million (genuine school holiday hit with some capacity for repeat viewings by the faithful. As word spreads of religious overtones it is more likely to gain extra viewers than lose any, since most secular viewers seem content to ignore that)

FWD&J - 10 Million (might get a boost from good word of mouth and from adult fatigue with kiddie movies)

by Roozbeh Araghi on December 31, 2005 at 02:45 AM

Harry Potter - 39 million

King Kong - 27 million

The Chronicles of Narnia - 28 million

Fun with Dick and Jane - 19.4 million

by Peter on December 31, 2005 at 02:56 AM

Harry Potter 4 = 36 million
KING KONG 30 million
The Chroncles of Narnia = 25 million
Fun wiht Dick and JAne = 13 million

by Fahad Saeed on December 31, 2005 at 03:31 AM

Harry - $37m
King Kong - $17m
Narnia - $26m
Fun with Dick and Jane - $6m

by Nicky on December 31, 2005 at 03:50 AM

Harry $35M
Narnia $25M
Kong$18M
Fun with Dick & Jane $8M

by Paul on December 31, 2005 at 08:35 AM

Harry Potter- 32.5 million

King Kong- 25 million

The Chronicles of Narnia- 29 million

Fun with Dick and Jane - 9 million

by Phil Broadbent on December 31, 2005 at 08:41 AM

Harry Potter - $35 million: The diehard fans have seen it and the 'M' rating means it does not have broad school holiday appeal

King Kong - $30 million: While many are put off by the length, strong word of mouth will see this perform well

Narnia - 32 million: So many people of us read this book as children and Disney have done a pretty impressive job in bringing this tale to life. Suitable for all ages and demographics (kids, oldies, sci-fi fans), this film will do very well over the coming weeks.

Fun with Dick and Jane - 10 million: This film should surprise and draw in more-than-respectable crowds. This time last year, Meet the Fockers did very well and due to the general lack of comedy and slapstick (at which Carey is genius), strong word of mouth will see this film do surprisingly well.

by firehorse on December 31, 2005 at 08:43 AM

HP4 - 38.1m adults at kids prices, $8 movie at GU this week and the beginning of the school holidays will see a lot of repeat viewers over Jan. Will gross more than the HP3 but not HP1.

King Kong, 24.8m average of 3m a week for the next 4 weeks add to the 12.7m. Too long for repeat views.

Narnia, 36.7 M kids will see it because of the fantasy themes, adults will see it to relive their childhoods.

Fun with Dick and Jane, 8M - I just don't think people will want to see it, and very few repeat viewers

by Bronwyn on December 31, 2005 at 09:09 AM

Harry Potter - $31.8m
While after four weeks most of the fans have already seen it, there still seems to be a large amount of older and curious moviegoers who have yet to make their way to see it. Plus it's still the best summer movie for kids out next month. The only problem might be stiff competition from Narnia.

Narnia - $26.9m I think Narnia is going to be the movie that will eventually feel the force of the 'we are over fantasy' vibe that's brewing at the moment(especially among the adult contingent). After a healthy start, it should start simmering down and do about average.

Kong - $29.6m The film should pick up quite a lot, like the U.S., mainly because of good word of mouth and there's little else left for adult moviegoers this summer.

Fun With Dick and Jane - $8.3mn. The ads are simply not doing the job for this film and will be why it doesn't do better than it should. Word of mouth and Jim Carrey are what it has to rely on (not always the most stable indicators).

by Dave on December 31, 2005 at 11:08 AM

Harry Potter - 34.5 million. The large majority of people have seen it, and it doesnt have as many sessions anymore.

King Kong - 22 million. People dont seem to be interested in a film that is so long. Has struggled.

Narnia - 31 million. Will hold popularity over the school holiday period through positive word of mouth

Fun With Dick and Jane - 11 million. Everyone's over Jim Carrey aren't they?!?!

by Craig McGowen on December 31, 2005 at 11:10 AM

harry (stupid) potter - $36.2mill
king kong - $26.6mill (loved it)
naria - $28.7mill (want to see it)
dick n jane - $6.2mill (want to see it)

by sandy on December 31, 2005 at 12:02 PM

Harry Potter ~ 38M Obligatory for the followers.

King Kong ~ 25M Once word of mouth gets out about it's length it will put a dent in ticket sales

Chronicles of Narnia ~ 29M It will do well in appealing to adults and children alike.

Dick and Jane ~ 14M We all need a laugh in a worrisome world.

by ellieatfirescreek on December 31, 2005 at 12:06 PM

Movie goers? We're talking here about the people in the community who are most easily influenced to think something will be good, or was good, by being told loudly and often that their peers think it is. You know, young people. And the immature generally. The attendances at these movies is largely determined by much money is spent advertising them. That's the formula for success for a movie in Australia. Not the content. Just having a b-i-g advertising budget. Take complete rubbish, and throw l-o-t-s of money at promoting it, and you've got a guaranteed commercial success. Meet the Fockers is the best proof of that.

by Gordon Drennan on December 31, 2005 at 12:11 PM

OT: "Again, it is one of the higher quality films this summer..." Narnia? Am I the only person who noticed how much this film sucked? Enough with the wands and ogres already. And can I add in Broken Flowers to this competition? I predict theatres will be in the red on this one when everyone demands their $15 back. Like watching Bill Murray take the piss out of Bill Murray. ZZZzzzzz.

by David Higgins on December 31, 2005 at 12:50 PM

Harry Potter - 37.5 million
King Kong - 23 million
The Chronicles of Narnia - 29 million
Fun with Dick and Jane - 8.5 million

by Glen on December 31, 2005 at 12:53 PM

Harry potter 4 $33.7 Million- harry potter movies, just like the books have become obligatory viewing. children over 10 who havent seen it will become outcasts, left to eck our salvation in the land of pirated copies.

King King $33.6 million - once 15-16 yr'old boys begin to learn about the horrid deaths some suffer they will be rushing to the cinema. the three hours is also fantastic for parent of small kids. take them to the drive in and they are generally asleep before kong arives and you get to watch the best bits in peace. Loved the movie and i think it'll do well.

Narnia $29.87 - not just for the kids. There is a whole generation of adults for whom the lion the witch and the wardrobe was compulsory reading and many will flock to see their fave childhood book enacted on the big screen (of course witht the excuse of 'my kid wanted to see it)

Fun with Dick and Jane - $6.79 Million what on earth is this movie about? not predicting much for this due to bad advertising, although could be a good movie, look at irobot. it looked terrible in the ads but was fantastic to watch, then there was AI, looked great in adds but so boring that i felt like cutting the dvd into the shape of et and sending the damn thing home! the only thing that will save dick and jane is great word of mouth.

by Jenny on December 31, 2005 at 02:29 PM

Narnia - 40 million
Harry Potter - 38 million
King Kong - 30 million
Dick and Jane - 8 million

by sac on December 31, 2005 at 05:38 PM

Harry Potter $32 million;
King Kong $30 million;
Narnia $40 million;
Fun with Dick & Jane $10 million;

Narnia - Original and woke up my sleeping imagination and memories of childhood. I chose Narnia over Harry Potter for its honest, unpretentious characters and plenty of lessons to be learned.

Harry Potter - Go with the crowd. Huge & loyal fan base.

King Kong - Peter Jackson's cinematic genius continues to lure audience big and small to the cinemas

Fun with Dick and Jane - A movie to watch after you have watched all of the above. It's funny and yummy, like a desert.

by Siti Subki on December 31, 2005 at 06:24 PM

Go see King Kong - it is too long (especially those fight and flight sequences on Skull Island, not to mention the interminable length of time it takes to get there - what is with all those "subtle" 'Heart of Darkness' references anyway?) Jackson is King, even though he may no longer be Kong. $31 million

Fun with Dick and Jane? No way, Jim Carey hasn't made a good movie since Mask. He's kinda like watching someone run their nails down a blackboard. $4.6 mill, tops.

Potter was OK, will probably keep on doing well. He has a fan base, you know... $34 million

Narnia? It's either going to hit or miss... I could be dragged in to see it but, frankly, I'm a little put off by the way it has been promoted as a Christian allegory. Let's hope there are no more children's fantasy books waiting to be filmed on mega budgets in New Zealand.... $24 million.

by Mogstar on December 31, 2005 at 08:34 PM

The prize isnt worth the effort. Make it an ipod or something and i will consider gracing you with an analysis.

David Dale replies: the reward is the opportunity to display your brilliance. The book is merely a symbol.

by Lina on January 01, 2006 at 12:34 AM

Look David I don�t get out of bed for less than an ipod, I�m certainly not going to display my brilliance for anything less.
"sniff"

David Dale replies: Ah well, looks like we won't have a winner then.

by Lina on January 01, 2006 at 10:55 AM

HP $37m - not likely to reach the dizzying heights of the first movie as the novelty has worn off, but should outperform the previous two instalments due to its ever expanding fan base. Keep in mind the third movie was up against a number of summer blockbusters at the time and movie-going fatigue may have set in, whereas the latest instalment opened after a relatively bland period at the box office. Extrapolating from the performance of previous films, $37m does not appear to be an unlikely estimate.

Chronicles of Narnia $24m - or Lord of the Rings for kids. Too family-friendly for teens and not much to distinguish it from or even render it superior to recent fantasy flicks (namely The Lord of the Rings). This film has not much going for it (aside from the blanket ad campaign). Likely to hit a brick wall soon.

King Kong $32m - likely to pick up through predominantly positive word of mouth. As with Titanic, it attempts to appeal to the lowest common denominator by being a multi-genre film (action, horror, adventure, drama, romance all on an epic scale crammed into a mind numbing ADD-inducing 3 hours - something for everyone?). The film will probably be on par with a typical summer blockbuster in terms of box office.

Fun With Dick and Jane $7m - Panned by critics. Competing in a very crowded market. Need I say more.

by Ed on January 01, 2006 at 12:42 PM

Jo Lo and the pope will be married, Saddam will become president of the USA, the Aussies won't water the track on Melb Cup Day (oh sure), Elvis will be found living in Bolivia with Harold Holt and Hitler, Shane Warne will behave himself, and a NSW policeman will be fired for being dishonest.

by Rip Van Winkle on January 01, 2006 at 01:59 PM

Harry Potter: $35M
King Kong: $32M
Chronicles of Narnia; $28M
Fun with Dick & Jane: $14m

Harry - the hysteria continues. Devotees to the book will need to see if the film lives up to expectations

Kong - can I tell you how much I cried in this movie? Word of mouth will do it good and the film is divine even tho the story line is crapola

Narnia - kids will love it and parents love anything that shuts the kids up for a couple of hours. And maybe some of them might remember it was a book first and actually expand their universe and read the book

Dick & Jane - for desperados on first dates and who thought it was cheaper to go to the movies than out for dinner. Funny enough but wont be worth the bomb it costs to go to the movies these days

by LouLou on January 01, 2006 at 02:52 PM

Fun with dick and jane will make 7 million

King Kong 20 million

Narnia 27 Million

Harrty Potter 28 Million

by ivan on January 01, 2006 at 06:07 PM

Not a big fan on the current low budget, lack of creativity hollywood is producing, but at times they do open a world of dreams, imagination and undescribable feelings. I'm talking about Narnia, it will be a matter of time before people relize their favourite book is alive. Go and see it you'll be a "devotee" it! I dont wanna give away anything...Forget the rest....

Harry Potter - 25 ? million

King Kong - 22? million

(The Chronicles of Narnia) - 35+ million

Fun with Dick and Jane - 18 ?million

by warsama on January 02, 2006 at 06:57 AM

Harry Potter and the extra millions - 34M Personally I'm over him but he has a big fan base and release time on the hols is always good for such things.

Kong - 28M, the studio should have taken Pete's offer to cut it. About 45min too long at best. PJ got a bit carried away.

The Chronicles of Narnia - 28M, the kiddies will eat it up. Adults will tag along to find out if it does the book justice (Not a bad effort)

Fun with Dick and Jane - 20M, yet another remake and despite reservations, it was better than expected. An easy going "brain massage" movie. Will probably do well on DVD release too.

Big advertising budget does not a good movie make. Hulk got pushed hard but word of mouth countered it effectively.

by Stevo on January 02, 2006 at 04:24 PM

"Harry Potter" - $39 million. Obsessive fans just have to see it, and I know some people who saw this film based on the trailer alone - and they hadn't even read the books.

"Narnia" - $33 million. Hoyts Broadway had to introduce a special queuing system for this so the kids must be going nuts for it, but I still don't think it will have time to catch up to Harry before the end of January.

"King Kong" - $28 million. Strangely, no one I know has seen this yet, not even LOTR fans. Not even me. I think we all just keep looking at that 187-minute running time and groaning.

"Fun With Dick and Jane" - $8 million. The film is lame and it won't take long for word of mouth to get out, but it should have done well over the Christmas/New Year heatwave: if you didn't want to see Kong and you didn't have kids (or didn't want to endure other people's), then there wasn't much else on at the local multiplex. It opened pretty weakly in America (only $21m in the first weekend), and they have way more Carrey fans than we do. Can't see this one being a huge local hit.

by Steven Reynolds on January 02, 2006 at 04:59 PM

harry P. - max of 31m, everyones over it

king kong - 22m, interesting, but no blockbuster

narnia - 30m, for the younger ones

FWD&J - 15m, very funny, but as said previously, no blockbuster

by gjw on January 02, 2006 at 05:13 PM

NARNIA - tops thanks to PG rating at around $35 mill and pushing from the pulpit in subtle ways.

POTTER will run it a close second. Had it got a PG it would have been a shoe-in for numero uno but new, conservatively "aware" young parents rae realy taking notice of those 'ADULT THEMES' nonsense ratings foisted on the public these days.

KONG creeps up from behind at aroud $30 mill Long running time reducing sessions as the new films come in mean that WOM will have to work hard. Just tel peopel about the penis-with-teeth monster that sucks off a guy's head and the horror fans will be there in droves.

FUN WITH DICK AND JANE was shite the first time around. Dead in the water on weekend #2.

All this for a lousy book? It's nearly as bad as 55 cents a minute for some sumbass AUSTRALIAN IDOL competition.

Shees, dave, ya oughta be ashamed. Giving away a freebie book ya got to fill your column inches.

Hahhaa. Have yourself a good New Year. Beast working, right?
Phil

by PCE on January 02, 2006 at 09:02 PM

Harry Potter $36 million - still weeks of school holidays to go and despite most fans seeing it already it does rate higher on IMBD than other two mentioned films

King Kong $26 million - First thought is why is it so long? A definate turnoff and bad business really. However it is such a good movie that word of mouth will push it higher as people accept they need to commit a lot of time but will want to see it nevertheless. This comment alone will add a million to the box office. : )

Nardia $24 million - will continue to draw consistently well in holidays

Fun with Dick and Jane $5 million - Paul Hogan once said if you do not have funny bits for the promo you have no hope. The promo for this did not spark interest for me.

by Craig Hudson on January 02, 2006 at 09:20 PM

With one week to go, here are my predictions...
Narnia - will (despite some of you slamming it) outpace HP, at $37m
HP - dead by now, $36m
Dick and Jane - also dead, $12m
King Kong - saw it, was def too long (even boring in parts), although the penis with teeth was def a highlight - glad it will only reach $22m

David Dale comments: Thanks for entering Steve, and your predictions are uncannily close to reality. But entries closed three weeks ago. We'll be declaring a winner next week, from among those who entered within the time frame, and if you look below, you can find out who it is likely to be.

by Steve on January 31, 2006 at 11:59 AM

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